Scalable iterative methods for sampling from massive Gaussian random vectors

Sampling from Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs), that is multivariate Gaussian ran- dom vectors that are parameterised by the inverse of their covariance matrix, is a fundamental problem in computational statistics. In this paper, we show how we can exploit arbitrarily accu- rate approximations to a GMRF to speed up Krylov subspace sampling methods. We also show that these methods can be used when computing the normalising constant of a large multivariate Gaussian distribution, which is needed for both any likelihood-based inference method. The method we derive is also applicable to other structured Gaussian random vectors and, in particu- lar, we show that when the precision matrix is a perturbation of a (block) circulant matrix, it is still possible to derive O(n log n) sampling schemes.Comment: 17 Pages, 4 Figure

Quantifying the relative effect of environmental contamination on surgical ward MRSA incidence: An exploratory analysis

Background: To investigate and quantify the contribution of environmental contamination towards methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) incidence observed in a hospital ward using stochastic modelling. Methods: A non-homogeneous Poisson process model was developed to investigate the relationship between environmental contamination and MRSA incidence in a UK surgical ward during a cleaning intervention study. The model quantified the fractional risks (FRs) from colonised patients, environmental contamination and a generic background source as a measure of their relative importance in describing the observed MRSA incidence. Results: While the background source remained the most likely MRSA acquisition source for this ward (as measured by the FRs), environmental contamination was the second most likely source, ahead of colonised patients in the ward. The relative importance of environmental contamination was smaller in the enhanced cleaning period compared with the normal cleaning period, albeit with notable variability in the estimates

Melanoma Cell Colony Expansion Parameters Revealed by Approximate Bayesian Computation

In vitro studies and mathematical models are now being widely used to study the underlying mechanisms driving the expansion of cell colonies. This can improve our understanding of cancer formation and progression. Although much progress has been made in terms of developing and analysing mathematical models, far less progress has been made in terms of understanding how to estimate model parameters using experimental in vitro image-based data. To address this issue, a new approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm is proposed to estimate key parameters governing the expansion of melanoma cell (MM127) colonies, including cell diffusivity, D, cell proliferation rate, λ, and cell-to-cell adhesion, q, in two experimental scenarios, namely with and without a chemical treatment to suppress cell proliferation. Even when little prior biological knowledge about the parameters is assumed, all parameters are precisely inferred with a small posterior coefficient of variation, approximately 2-12%. The ABC analyses reveal that the posterior distributions of D and q depend on the experimental elapsed time, whereas the posterior distribution of λ does not. The posterior mean values of D and q are in the ranges 226-268 µm2h−1 , 311-351 µm2h−1 and 0.23-0.39, 0.32-0.61 for the experimental periods of 0-24 h and 24-48 h, respectively. Furthermore, we found that the posterior distribution of q also depends on the initial cell density, whereas the posterior distributions of D and λ do not. The ABC approach also enables information from the two experiments to be combined, resulting in greater precision for all estimates of D and λ

The variational Bayesian approach to fitting mixture models to circular wave direction data

The emerging variational Bayesian (VB) technique for approximate Bayesian statistical inference is a nonsimulation- based and time-efficient approach. It provides a useful, practical alternative to other Bayesian statistical approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo–based techniques, particularly for applications involving large datasets. This article reviews the increasingly popular VB statistical approach and illustrates how it can be used to fit Gaussian mixture models to circular wave direction data. This is done by taking the straightforward approach of padding the data; this method involves adding a repeat of a complete cycle of the data to the existing dataset to obtain a dataset on the real line. The padded dataset can then be analyzed using the standard VB technique. This results in a practical, efficient approach that is also appropriate for modeling other types of circular, or directional, data such as wind direction

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Filovirus RefSeq Entries: Evaluation and Selection of Filovirus Type Variants, Type Sequences, and Names

Sequence determination of complete or coding-complete genomes of viruses is becoming common practice for supporting the work of epidemiologists, ecologists, virologists, and taxonomists. Sequencing duration and costs are rapidly decreasing, sequencing hardware is under modification for use by non-experts, and software is constantly being improved to simplify sequence data management and analysis. Thus, analysis of virus disease outbreaks on the molecular level is now feasible, including characterization of the evolution of individual virus populations in single patients over time. The increasing accumulation of sequencing data creates a management problem for the curators of commonly used sequence databases and an entry retrieval problem for end users. Therefore, utilizing the data to their fullest potential will require setting nomenclature and annotation standards for virus isolates and associated genomic sequences. The National Center for Biotechnology Information’s (NCBI’s) RefSeq is a non-redundant, curated database for reference (or type) nucleotide sequence records that supplies source data to numerous other databases. Building on recently proposed templates for filovirus variant naming [ ()////-], we report consensus decisions from a majority of past and currently active filovirus experts on the eight filovirus type variants and isolates to be represented in RefSeq, their final designations, and their associated sequences

Ebola: translational science considerations

We are currently in the midst of the most aggressive and fulminating outbreak of Ebola-related disease, commonly referred to as “Ebola”, ever recorded. In less than a year, the Ebola virus (EBOV, Zaire ebolavirus species) has infected over 10,000 people, indiscriminately of gender or age, with a fatality rate of about 50%. Whereas at its onset this Ebola outbreak was limited to three countries in West Africa (Guinea, where it was first reported in late March 2014, Liberia, where it has been most rampant in its capital city, Monrovia and other metropolitan cities, and Sierra Leone), cases were later reported in Nigeria, Mali and Senegal, as well as in Western Europe (i.e., Madrid, Spain) and the US (i.e., Dallas, Texas; New York City) by late October 2014. World and US health agencies declared that the current Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak has a strong likelihood of growing exponentially across the world before an effective vaccine, treatment or cure can be developed, tested, validated and distributed widely. In the meantime, the spread of the disease may rapidly evolve from an epidemics to a full-blown pandemic. The scientific and healthcare communities actively research and define an emerging kaleidoscope of knowledge about critical translational research parameters, including the virology of EBOV, the molecular biomarkers of the pathological manifestations of EVD, putative central nervous system involvement in EVD, and the cellular immune surveillance to EBOV, patient-centered anthropological and societal parameters of EVD, as well as translational effectiveness about novel putative patient-targeted vaccine and pharmaceutical interventions, which hold strong promise, if not hope, to curb this and future Ebola outbreaks. This work reviews and discusses the principal known facts about EBOV and EVD, and certain among the most interesting ongoing or future avenues of research in the field, including vaccination programs for the wild animal vectors of the virus and the disease from global translational science perspective

Functional annotation of the 2q35 breast cancer risk locus implicates a structural variant in influencing activity of a long-range enhancer element

A combination of genetic and functional approaches has identified three independent breast cancer risk loci at 2q35. A recent fine-scale mapping analysis to refine these associations resulted in 1 (signal 1), 5 (signal 2), and 42 (signal 3) credible causal variants at these loci. We used publicly available in silico DNase I and ChIP-seq data with in vitro reporter gene and CRISPR assays to annotate signals 2 and 3. We identified putative regulatory elements that enhanced cell-type-specific transcription from the IGFBP5 promoter at both signals (30-to 40-fold increased expression by the putative regulatory element at signal 2, 2- to 3-fold by the putative regulatory element at signal 3). We further identified one of the five credible causal variants at signal 2, a 1.4 kb deletion (esv3594306), as the likely causal variant; the deletion allele of this variant was associated with an average additional increase in IGFBP5 expression of 1.3-fold (MCF-7) and 2.2-fold (T-47D). We propose a model in which the deletion allele of esv3594306 juxtaposes two transcription factor binding regions (annotated by estrogen receptor alpha ChIP-seq peaks) to generate a single extended regulatory element. This regulatory element increases cell-type-specific expression of the tumor suppressor gene IGFBP5 and, thereby, reduces risk of estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer (odds ratio = 0.77, 95% CI 0.74-0.81, p = 3.1 x 10(-31)).Peer reviewe

Effects of antiplatelet therapy after stroke due to intracerebral haemorrhage (RESTART): a randomised, open-label trial

Background: Antiplatelet therapy reduces the risk of major vascular events for people with occlusive vascular disease, although it might increase the risk of intracranial haemorrhage. Patients surviving the commonest subtype of intracranial haemorrhage, intracerebral haemorrhage, are at risk of both haemorrhagic and occlusive vascular events, but whether antiplatelet therapy can be used safely is unclear. We aimed to estimate the relative and absolute effects of antiplatelet therapy on recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage and whether this risk might exceed any reduction of occlusive vascular events. Methods: The REstart or STop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial (RESTART) was a prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded endpoint, parallel-group trial at 122 hospitals in the UK. We recruited adults (≥18 years) who were taking antithrombotic (antiplatelet or anticoagulant) therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed intracerebral haemorrhage, discontinued antithrombotic therapy, and survived for 24 h. Computerised randomisation incorporating minimisation allocated participants (1:1) to start or avoid antiplatelet therapy. We followed participants for the primary outcome (recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage) for up to 5 years. We analysed data from all randomised participants using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusted for minimisation covariates. This trial is registered with ISRCTN (number ISRCTN71907627). Findings: Between May 22, 2013, and May 31, 2018, 537 participants were recruited a median of 76 days (IQR 29–146) after intracerebral haemorrhage onset: 268 were assigned to start and 269 (one withdrew) to avoid antiplatelet therapy. Participants were followed for a median of 2·0 years (IQR [1·0– 3·0]; completeness 99·3%). 12 (4%) of 268 participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy had recurrence of intracerebral haemorrhage compared with 23 (9%) of 268 participants allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (adjusted hazard ratio 0·51 [95% CI 0·25–1·03]; p=0·060). 18 (7%) participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy experienced major haemorrhagic events compared with 25 (9%) participants allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (0·71 [0·39–1·30]; p=0·27), and 39 [15%] participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy had major occlusive vascular events compared with 38 [14%] allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (1·02 [0·65–1·60]; p=0·92). Interpretation: These results exclude all but a very modest increase in the risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage with antiplatelet therapy for patients on antithrombotic therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed intracerebral haemorrhage. The risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage is probably too small to exceed the established benefits of antiplatelet therapy for secondary prevention